The Efficacy and Effect of Racial Profiling: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

Racial profiling – the use of race, ethnicity, or national origin by law enforcement officials to make judgments of criminal suspicion – is assessed in terms of its effect on targeted populations and law enforcement efficiency. A mathematical model, comparing multiple profiling and nonprofiling simulated scenarios, is employed. This analysis indicates that racial profiling exacerbates incarceration disparities between groups whether or not the groups differ in criminal activity, and that the presumed benefits of profiling can be illusory. “Optimal” profiling (i.e., with the highest long-term criminal capture rates) appears to occur when stop rate ratios match criminality rate ratios between groups. Policy implications are considered with regard to assessing the utility of racial profiling and strategies for detecting and deterring it.